The Next 4 Billion

Market Size and Business Strategy at the Base of the Pyramid

The Next 4 Billion Cover

Four billion low-income consumers—a majority of the world’s population—constitute the base of the economic pyramid. New empirical measures of their aggregate purchasing power and their behavior as consumers suggest significant opportunities for market-based approaches to better meet their needs, increase their productivity and incomes, and empower their entry into the formal economy.

This report, based on unique access to the household income and consumption surveys of developing and transition countries, offers a new perspective on low-income communities worldwide. Drawing on income data from 110 countries and standardized expenditure data from 36 countries across the globe, The Next 4 Billion is an important first look at the market opportunity at the BOP. The analysis for the first time provides a quantitative assessment and characterization of BOP markets, by country and sector.


Submitted by Al Hammond on May 8, 2008 - 08:16.
This post is the third in a five part series on a radical new approach to scaling BoP business models, what we call a transformative sector strategy. In this segment, I describe how this strategy could transform the health sector in emerging economies.

Last Mile Health Care Delivery

Talk to people in the rural communities of southern Mexico, in the new urban communities on the southern edge of Bogota, or in almost any village in rural Africa about getting decent access to healthcare, and their answer is the same: it usually costs more to get to a clinic, a doctor's office, even a pharmacy, than the cost of the service itself. In Bogota, most of the government-supported health services are in the north of the city, such that it can cost people in these new refugee communities a day's work plus bus fare across town and back to get help. Lack of access defines part of the last mile health care dilemma, and that means distributional business models, such as franchising, can be important.

Talk to Health Stores in Kenya, an enterprise trying to staff small pharmacies with nurses, and another part of the problem becomes clear: the sheer lack of doctors, nurses, and pharmacists in emerging markets. There are not anywhere close to the number of skilled professionals needed to cover rural areas, and these health workers overwhelmingly refuse to live either in rural areas or in urban slums. So technologies, organizational models, and legal changes that enable local diagnosis and remote practice by doctors and pharmacists could play a critical role.

Still a third factor leaps out from the data in The Next 4 Billion report that shows clearly that low-income households spend between a third and a half of their out-of-pocket health care expenditures on drugs. They typically don't go to doctors or clinics or hospitals, but rather to pharmacies or some other source of medicines and seek to self-medicate. That means they often get a guess as to what's wrong with them instead of a diagnosis.

(This post continues past the break; click "Read More" to continue)

. . . . .
Submitted by Al Hammond on May 7, 2008 - 14:49.
This post is the fourth in a five part series on a radical new approach to scaling BoP business models, what we call a transformative sector strategy. In this segment, I discuss the common characteristics that make BoP business models in different sectors scalable solutions.

Searching for Transformational Models in New Sectors

If building the missing infrastructure could transform rural connectivity and health care, what about access to clean drinking water, especially for smaller rural and peri-urban communities? That's a proposition that WRI and Santa Clara University's Global Social Benefit Incubator are researching. There are some promising models in the field, such as Water Health International, that are beginning to scale. There are a number of additional enterprises, five of which will be mentored intensively in this year's incubator class. There are some promising new filtering technologies that use less energy than existing technologies, as well as other interesting approaches that have yet to be applied in emerging markets; we are undertaking a detailed comparison of both existing and newer technologies.


A number of community-initiated business models have produced good results, but they aren't easily replicable and don't scale. So we are analyzing both franchising and public-private partnership business models. Many of the elements that make rural connectivity and rural health care promising appear to be present in the water sector. It is too early to say what will emerge out of the research, but the scale of the unmet need is clear - a billion people without access to clean drinking water.

And after water, why not BoP energy? Our preliminary thinking is that there at least three sub-sectors of interest: Off-grid power and lighting, from mini-hydro to LED lighting; efficiency improvements in energy-using devices, such as cook stoves and motorbikes; and locally-grown, produced, and consumed biofuels that don't compete with food. We know of prototype enterprises and projects in each sub-sector, some of them already beginning to scale. We believe that the recent, rapid evolution of technology options will continue and can be adapted for the BoP. And we know that the unmet need is very large.

(This post continues past the break; click "Read More" to continue)

. . . . .
Submitted by Al Hammond on May 7, 2008 - 08:31.
This post is the second in a five part series on a radical new approach to scaling BoP business models, what we call a transformative sector strategy. In this segment, I tell the story of a rural connectivity pilot project; an example of this new model for development in action.

A Last Mile Model for Rural Connectivity

Son Tay commune, Quang Ngai Province. I was sitting across a table in a remote rural outpost of Vietnam, negotiating (via a translator) with the manager of a local radio station about access to his tower. He asked a series of technical questions and seemed satisfied with the answers, but then he wondered aloud: "Can we get Internet access here?" He didn't just want it for the radio station, it emerged, but for the surrounding small community - even though nobody there yet owned a computer. The manager understood that internet access could help transform their opportunities. And when we agreed to mount a small antenna to serve the community, the tower was ours.

The negotiation was part of a two year long process to pilot a novel approach to rural connectivity. It involved building an advanced, broadband network in three communes (groups of villages) in a very poor province in central Vietnam to provide Internet-based phone service and Internet access. Quang Ngai Province has no Internet access for its million-plus population outside of the provincial capital, and phone ownership is about 3 percent.

But the province does have an AUSAID-funded rural development project (RUDEP) that had built trust by doubling farmer's incomes in many communes, and optical fiber to every district capital (owned by the national electric utility, EVN, which also owns a mobile phone company, EVN Telecom). Ultimately all of these became partners in the effort, as did USAID's Last Mile Initiative, Intel and other equipment providers.

(This post continues past the break; click "Read More" to continue)

. . . . .
Submitted by Al Hammond on May 6, 2008 - 08:03.
This post is the first of a five part series on a radical new approach to scaling BoP business models, what we call a transformative sector strategy. In this segment, I introduce the conceptual framework for this innovative poverty-alleviation model.

"It doesn't exactly keep me up at night, but I do think about it a lot." Jacqueline Novogratz, head of Acumen Fund, and I were talking about getting to scale - about expanding private sector business development and investment aimed at empowering and providing basic services to the poor to the point of making a real impact.

I felt exactly the same, and I've had similar conversations with colleagues at Santa Clara University, at Ashoka, at private investment funds, and elsewhere. Ever since we finished our report on The Next 4 Billion, the numbers haunt me. How do you meet the unmet needs of four billion people?

Convincing a dozen multinational companies to take this market seriously isn't enough. Doubling or quadrupling the capacity of the organizations that mentor social enterprises and BoP-serving small and medium businesses won't do it either. Even investing hundreds of millions of dollars in individual enterprises in this sector doesn't guarantee success. I think the goal has to be to transform whole sectors in ways that catalyze mainstream investment in BoP economic activity and unleash market forces. To get there, I think we need a more systematic approach.

A Next-Generation BoP Approach: Transformative Sector Models


In this and subsequent posts, I'm going to suggest one such approach that I and my colleagues at WRI and elsewhere have been developing for several years, and that we are now starting to take into the field. I'm proposing this scaling model tentatively, and asking for feedback and for comparisons to other scaling models.

The approach builds on the perception that there is a growing amount of public and private capital available to fund BoP strategies - almost every month now I hear about a new BoP private equity fund - and the conviction that the bottleneck is a shortage of solutions in the form of investable enterprises. In venture capital jargon, what's missing is the "deal flow." And I'm suggesting that the way to create that deal flow and unleash a rising tide of investment is to focus not on individual entrepreneurs, not on individual companies, but on economic sectors.

(This post continues past the break; click "Read More" to continue)
. . . . .
Submitted by Derek Newberry on April 14, 2008 - 12:41.

All of us at NextBillion.net were both humbled and thrilled to see the New York Times Sunday Magazine draw on our work - and the work of many colleagues - to write an extended piece on the impact of cell phone usage in emerging economies.

Sara Corbett's article follows Nokia researcher Jan Chipchase as he navigates the human terrain of countries like Ghana, Brazil and Uzbekistan, trying to figure out why a farmer in Kenya or a prostitute in Brazil is finding unique value in their cell phone. The article uses Jan's experience as a device for sparking a broader discussion on the potential for the booming cell phone market to increase incomes and quality of life among the BoP.

What was most interesting about the piece is that the author poses her central theme as a question, not an assertion: "Can the Cellphone Help End Global Poverty?" In her narrative, while laying out the case that cell phones increase productivity, she does not present this technology as a silver bullet development solution.

Rather, we get a very rich, on-the-ground account of how technology is changing people's lives in BoP markets everywhere.

(This post continues past the break; click "Read More" to continue.)

. . . . .