NextBillion brings together the community of business leaders, social entrepreneurs, NGOs, policy makers, and academics who want to explore the connection between development and enterprise.
In our latest forecasts, we outlined a central scenario which sees a global slowdown but not a recession. In keeping with one of our themes of “changing balances of power”, we see weakening growth in the developed world as being partially offset by the re
In our latest forecasts, we outlined a central scenario which sees a global slowdown but not a recession. In keeping with one of our themes of “changing balances of power”, we see weakening growth in the developed world as being partially offset by the resilience of the emerging economies.
Of course this forecast carries a more significant element of uncertainty than usual in light of the ongoing credit crisis, but given the growing willingness of the authorities in the US and Europe to act to ameliorate the housing downswing and freeze in credit markets, plus the ability of the emerging world to resist the US slowdown, we are reasonably confident that a global recession can be avoided.
Hence our central, medium-term forecast is one of “muddling through” for the world economy with sustained but modest real growth combined with contained inflation pressures. If this turns out to be the case, then rather than worry about recession/depression, we will come more to think about the structure of this growth and what the investment implications might be.
To view the full report, click here.
Comments