I don't think the XO will go the way of the Simputer (remember that one?) but it may not achieve the targets hoped for by NN. Selling millions was his business model, and it has not happened. It will be important to watch what happens in Uruguay, Peru, and Mexico (Carlos Slim's foundation has ordered about 50,000 or so). I took part in the give one/get one and am amazed at what they stuffed into a machine costing about $180. However, it needs decent manuals for teachers, for other adults, and for kids. And not just a wiki. Ongoing local support is a must. Without relatively fast connectivity I think it will be hard for remote schools to handle the patches and upgrades that are sure to follow in 2008. I don't think there will be a common set of ways of measuring success of this program from country to country. Strong sales are just the start.